Republican opposition to California Proposition 50 the ballot measure aimed at giving Democrats more secure congressional seats may be no match for one simple reality: Californians really don’t like Donald Trump.
There are several ways to describe Proposition Yes on 50, the only statewide initiative on this year’s ballot. Technically, it’s about redrawing congressional districts ahead of schedule. Strategically, it’s an attempt to counter Republican gerrymandering in Texas and other states with a Democrat-friendly map of California. Critics, however, call it a blatant partisan power grab that undermines more than a decade of bipartisan reforms designed to make California’s elections fair and competitive.
But Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic leaders have found a simpler, emotional pitch: a chance for voters to push back against Trump. The former president remains deeply unpopular in California garnering fewer than 40% of votes in 2024 and his name has become a rallying cry for the “Yes on 50” campaign.
“There’s actually a double appeal here,” said veteran Democratic strategist Garry South, a vocal supporter of the measure. “Trump and Texas the two things Californians love to hate. How can you lose with that?”
Yes on 50
Officially dubbed the Election Rigging Response Act, Proposition Yes on 50 would amend the state constitution and pause the work of California’s independent redistricting commission until 2031, allowing Democrats to create up to five additional safe congressional seats. Since Democrats already hold 43 of California’s 52 seats, the move wouldn’t drastically shift local power but it’s designed to offset Republican gains in Texas, where Trump personally pushed for redistricting that added five GOP seats earlier this year.
Newsom’s message has been clear: “Fight fire with fire.” National Democratic figures including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Barack Obama have endorsed the plan, framing it as a necessary countermeasure to nationwide Republican manipulation of district boundaries.
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, Republican-led gerrymandering has already given the GOP a 16-seat advantage in the House, a figure that rises to 23 when factoring in recent redistricting moves in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina.
Californians really don’t like Donald Trump
“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election,” Obama warned in a recent ad. “With Prop Yes on 50, you can stop them in their tracks.”
Still, Californians are conflicted. Many voters say they dislike the idea of scrapping nonpartisan maps, yet polls show growing support for the measure. Earlier this month, the “Yes” campaign hovered around 50%, with a sizable bloc of undecided voters. Two new surveys released this week, however, show Proposition 50 leading by 20 points, with overall support climbing into the high 50s and low 60s.
Notably, three-quarters of “Yes” voters told CBS News they’re backing the measure primarily to oppose Trump not necessarily because they support gerrymandering. (source)
Still, experts warn against overconfidence. Ballot initiatives, especially in low-turnout off-year elections, can shift dramatically in the final days.
“Historically, undecided voters tend to break against ballot measures late in the game,” noted Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist who teaches at UC Berkeley and USC. “When people don’t fully understand a proposition, they usually vote ‘no’ just to be safe.”
Whether Proposition Yes on 50 becomes law may ultimately depend not on its policy details, but on how strongly Californians’ lingering anger toward Trump drives them to the polls.
