The leaked draft proposing a potential framework to end the Russia–Ukraine War lays out a series of wide-reaching political, territorial, and security commitments. One of the most controversial elements revolves around Ukraine’s future alignment. The document states that Ukraine would amend its constitution to permanently abandon plans to join NATO, while NATO would formally exclude Ukraine from future membership. In return, Ukraine would remain eligible for EU membership and receive temporary preferential access to European markets.
This section of the proposal appears detached from political realities. Ukraine’s constitution currently enshrines aspirations to join both NATO and the EU, and Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated that they will not surrender their right to choose international alliances. At the same time, the proposal outlines additional demands: NATO would not station troops in Ukraine, Kyiv would remain a non-nuclear state, and European fighter jets would instead be deployed in Poland.
Another major theme of the draft is reintegrating Russia into the global system. Several points call for Russia to be brought back from international isolation, potentially allowing Moscow to rejoin the G8 and benefit from restored economic ties. In practice, such steps appear distant, especially with Vladimir Putin currently under an International Criminal Court arrest warrant.
The draft also attempts to address the question of frozen Russian assets. It suggests that 100 billion dollars in Russian funds be invested in US-led reconstruction projects in Ukraine, with the United States receiving half of the profits. Europe would be expected to contribute an additional 100 billion dollars. However, the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine has already been estimated at more than half a trillion dollars, making the proposal appear insufficient. The plan vaguely splits remaining frozen assets between the EU and a joint US-Russia investment vehicle, potentially allowing Russia to recover portions of its money while the US benefits financially.
Several analysts have noted what the plan leaves out. While it warns that Ukrainian missile strikes on major Russian cities could nullify security guarantees, it places no restrictions on Kyiv’s expanding long-range weapons programs. Meanwhile, the United States continues to frame the document as a list of ideas rather than a final agreement, and both the EU and Russia have said they have not officially reviewed the proposal.
Critics are also questioning whether the draft aligns too closely with Russian interests. Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev reportedly spent days discussing the framework with US negotiators, prompting concerns about an agreement that could tilt toward Moscow. The most contentious point is the demand that Ukraine withdraw from the remaining Ukrainian-controlled areas of Donetsk, converting them into a demilitarized zone internationally recognized as Russian territory. Major cities in this area hold hundreds of thousands of residents and serve as strategic defensive hubs.
Additionally, the plan calls for Ukraine to reduce its armed forces to 600,000 troops. Ukrainian leaders argue that such limits violate national sovereignty and remain unacceptable during or after the Russia–Ukraine War. Kyiv’s diplomats have reiterated that Ukraine will never accept territorial concessions or restrictions on military capabilities.
In summary, the leaked draft outlines 28 points, mixing familiar ideas with controversial concessions. While some elements may theoretically be negotiable, territorial handovers, military reductions, and diluted security guarantees make the proposal unlikely to gain Ukrainian support in its current form.
SOURCE: BBC
