Home Science Atlantic Hurricane Activity Intensifies with Multiple Systems Under Watch

Atlantic Hurricane Activity Intensifies with Multiple Systems Under Watch

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Atlantic Hurricane Activity Intensifies with Multiple Systems Under Watch

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring several tropical systems in the Atlantic as activity ramps up in the basin. Alongside Hurricane Gabrielle, located east of Bermuda, two tropical disturbances in the central Atlantic have shown potential for development this week.

The first disturbance, positioned about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands, has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days. Increased showers and thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, combined with improving environmental conditions, suggest a tropical depression could form by mid to late week as it moves west-northwest. Forecast models indicate a track similar to Gabrielle’s.

The second system is a disorganized cluster of showers and storms located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, west of the first disturbance. It has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression later this week as it moves into the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system may bring gusty winds and showers to the Leeward Islands early in the week.

Atlantic Hurricane

Once a tropical depression’s sustained winds reach 39 mph, it will be named. The next name on the list is Humberto.

Gabrielle’s formation ended an unusually quiet period around the hurricane season’s climatological peak on September 10. Forecasters expect activity to increase in the coming weeks as environmental conditions become more favorable. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and experts at Colorado State University highlight that atmospheric shifts and wind pattern changes will likely fuel more tropical development into early October.

Although the peak has passed, about 60% of tropical activity typically occurs after September 10. Historically, nearly two-thirds of the Atlantic hurricane season’s activity happens between August 20 and October 10. Last year’s late September and early October period underscored how active and potentially damaging this late-season window can be.

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