Simon Case Warns Rachel Reeves, former head of the civil service, has warned that if Rachel Reeves does not use next week’s crucial budget to demonstrate that centre-ground politicians can solve the UK’s deep-rooted economic challenges, voters may turn away. Speaking to the Guardian, Case recalled that during last year’s general election, when he was still cabinet secretary, he expected Labour to break its manifesto promise not to raise taxes due to the dire state of public finances.
The lead-up to Reeves’s major fiscal speech has been tense. Initially, the chancellor hinted heavily that she might have to break the Labour manifesto by increasing income tax, but the Treasury later reversed course. Instead, she is now expected to seek additional revenue through measures like levies on gambling and possibly freezing income tax thresholds a move that effectively raises taxes without officially breaking manifesto pledges.
Before the election, some fiscal experts argued Labour’s commitment to not raising income tax, national insurance, or VAT was unrealistic. While Case wasn’t able to advise during pre-budget talks, he shared those concerns. “In Whitehall, we were very worried about the promises they made because we knew the true state of public finances they would face,” he said. Case, now a cross-bench peer, suggested that failure to address fundamental issues of tax, spending, and debt in the budget could push voters away from centrist parties towards groups like Reform UK.
Simon Case Warns Rachel Reeves
Case emphasized the importance of this budget for both Reeves and Keir Starmer, calling it a defining moment not just for their political futures but for centre-ground politics in the UK. He criticized debates focused narrowly on whether minor tax rises amount to breaking manifesto promises, pointing out that the real issue is the unsustainable financial trajectory requiring decisions on spending hundreds of billions.
He also highlighted the deeper, long-term economic problems Reeves faces: persistently low productivity despite multiple governments’ efforts, and increasing pressure on public services that are struggling to meet expectations. He concluded, “Every budget now for the next few years is going to be incredibly difficult.” (Source)
Among confirmed budget measures is a crackdown on illegal vapes, with new powers to enable border and tax officials to seize illicit products and levy fines up to £10,000 on unscrupulous traders. This follows a recent ban on single-use vapes aimed at reducing environmental harm and curbing youth usage. Officials stressed that Reeves’s budget will introduce these tools to protect consumers and support legitimate businesses amid a surge in illegal vaping products.
